TY  - EJOU
AU  - Nam, Robert K. 
AU  - Toi, Ants 
AU  - Klotz, Laurence H. 
AU  - Trachtenberg, John 
AU  - Jewett, Michael A. S. 
AU  - Loblaw, Andrew 
AU  - Pond, Greg R. 
AU  - Emami, Marjan 
AU  - Sugar, Linda 
AU  - Sweet, Joan 
AU  - Narod, Steven A. 

TI  - Nomogram prediction for prostate cancer and aggressive prostate cancer at time of biopsy: utilizing all risk factors and tumor markers for prostate cancer
T2  - Canadian Journal of Urology

PY  - 2006
VL  - 13
IS  - Suppl.2
SN  - 1488-5581

AB  - <b>Background:</b> There is a large amount of confusion in interpreting prostate specific antigen (PSA) values for prostate cancer. More precise risk assessments for prostate cancer detection are needed for men faced with an abnormal PSA.<br/>
<b>Methods:</b> We studied a sample of 2637 men who underwent a prostate biopsy for an abnormal digital rectal exam (DRE) or PSA. Using factors including age, ethnicity, family history of prostate cancer, previous negative biopsy, presence of voiding symptoms, prostate volume, DRE and PSA, we constructed nomograms to predict the probability of prostate cancer at biopsy.<br/>
<b>Results:</b> Of the 2637 men, 1282 men (48.6%) had prostate cancer detected. Age, ethnicity, family history of prostate cancer, a previous negative biopsy, prostate volume, DRE and PSA were all significant predictors of prostate cancer. Nomograms were constructed based on these factors to predict the risk of prostate cancer and of aggressive prostate cancer (defined as a Gleason Score ≥7). The positive predictive value varied from 5% to 95% based on the nomograms. The nomograms were validated using bootstrapping methods and the expected and observed proportions were found to be highly concordant.<br/>
<b>Conclusions:</b> For men with an abnormal PSA or DRE, the risk for prostate cancer can be accurately estimated using a nomogram based on age, ethnicity, family history of prostate cancer, previous negative biopsy, presence of voiding symptoms, prostate volume, DRE and PSA. This tool will aid physicians and patients in determining the need for prostate biopsy.
KW  - prostate cancer
KW  -  prostate specific antigen
KW  -  biopsy
KW  -  nomogram

DO  -