TY  - EJOU
AU  - Xu, Zhihui 
AU  - Shang, Shuwen 
AU  - Pu, Yuntong 
AU  - Su, Xiaoyan 
AU  - Qian, Hong 
AU  - Pan, Xiaolei 

TI  - An Improved CREAM Model Based on DS Evidence Theory and DEMATEL
T2  - Computer Modeling in Engineering \& Sciences

PY  - 2024
VL  - 138
IS  - 3
SN  - 1526-1506

AB  - Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM) is widely used in human reliability analysis (HRA). It defines nine common performance conditions (CPCs), which represent the factors that may affect human reliability and are used to modify the cognitive failure probability (CFP). However, the levels of CPCs are usually determined by domain experts, which may be subjective and uncertain. What’s more, the classic CREAM assumes that the CPCs are independent, which is unrealistic. Ignoring the dependence among CPCs will result in repeated calculations of the influence of the CPCs on CFP and lead to unreasonable reliability evaluation. To address the issue of uncertain information modeling and processing, this paper introduces evidence theory to evaluate the CPC levels in specific scenarios. To address the issue of dependence modeling, the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method is used to process the dependence among CPCs and calculate the relative weights of each CPC, thus modifying the multiplier of the CPCs. The detailed process of the proposed method is illustrated in this paper and the CFP estimated by the proposed method is more reasonable.
KW  - Human reliability analysis; CREAM; uncertainty modeling; dependence; Dempster-Shafer evidence theory; DEMATEL

DO  - 10.32604/cmes.2023.031247