TY  - EJOU
AU  - Chen, Yung-Yao 
AU  - Silalahi, Desri Kristina 
AU  - Yilma, Atinkut Atinafu 
AU  - Yang, Chao-Lung 

TI  - DOEP Framework for Photovoltaic Power Prediction
T2  - Computer Modeling in Engineering \& Sciences

PY  - 2026
VL  - 146
IS  - 2
SN  - 1526-1506

AB  - Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power generation forecasting is essential for the efficient integration of renewable energy into power grids. However, the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of PV power signals, driven by fluctuating weather conditions, pose significant challenges for reliable prediction. This study proposes a DOEP (Decomposition–Optimization–Error Correction–Prediction) framework, a hybrid forecasting approach that integrates adaptive signal decomposition, machine learning, metaheuristic optimization, and error correction. The PV power signal is first decomposed using CEEMDAN to extract multi-scale temporal features. Subsequently, the hyperparameters and window sizes of the LSSVM are optimized using a Segment-based EBQPSO strategy. The main novelty of the proposed DOEP framework lies in the incorporation of Segment-based EBQPSO as a structured optimization mechanism that balances elite exploitation and population diversity during LSSVM tuning within the CEEMDAN-based forecasting pipeline. This strategy effectively mitigates convergence instability and sensitivity to initialization, which are common limitations in existing hybrid PV forecasting models. Each IMF is then predicted individually and aggregated to generate an initial forecast. In the error-correction stage, the residual error series is modeled using LSTM, and the final prediction is obtained by combining the initial forecast with the predicted error component. The proposed framework is evaluated using two PV power plant datasets with different levels of complexity. The results demonstrate that DOEP consistently outperforms benchmark models across multiple error-based and goodness-of-fit metrics, achieving MSE reductions of approximately 15%–60% on the ResPV-BDG dataset and 37%–92% on the NREL dataset. Analyses of predicted vs. observed values and residual distributions further confirm the superior calibration and robustness of the proposed approach. Although the DOEP framework entails higher computational costs than single model methods, it delivers significantly improved accuracy and stability for PV power forecasting under complex operating conditions.
KW  - Hybrid forecasting; photovoltaic power; decomposition; adaptive noise

DO  - 10.32604/cmes.2026.075040