TY  - EJOU
AU  - Yang, Huanli 
AU  - Jian, Wenqian 
AU  - Yang, Xudong 
AU  - Hu, Xinyu 
AU  - Han, Yunong 
AU  - Xu, Sheng 
AU  - Ye, Zixin 
AU  - Zhu, Lujun 
AU  - Zheng, Yawen 
AU  - Yi, Yanhong 

TI  - Identification of Distal and Proximal Risk Factors for Suicidality among New-Generation Migrant Workers in China
T2  - International Journal of Mental Health Promotion

PY  - 
VL  - 
IS  - 
SN  - 2049-8543

AB  - <b>Background:</b> New-generation migrant workers in China, defined here as those born in or after 1980, experience psychological, family, and occupational pressures. This study evaluated candidate distal and proximal predictors of past-year suicidality and developed an interpretable risk-stratification model. <b>Methods:</b> A cross-sectional survey of 1942 married new-generation migrant workers with children in the Yangtze River Delta region of China assessed suicidality, sociodemographic characteristics, and a range of distal and proximal factors. Participants were allocated to training (<i>n</i> = 1359) and validation (<i>n</i> = 583) sets. Candidate predictors were screened using univariable analyses and logistic least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression with 10-fold cross-validation. Predictors retained at the prespecified λ<sub>1se</sub> were refitted using multivariable logistic regression and presented as a nomogram, while the λ<sub>min</sub> solution served as a comparator. The validation set was used exclusively for performance evaluation. <b>Results:</b> Past-year suicidality was reported by 11.0% of participants. Six proximal predictors were retained: stress, depression, poor self-evaluation, low subjective well-being, marital instability, and work burnout. The model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.853 (95% CI 0.805–0.902), an area under the precision-recall curve (PR-AUC) of 0.578, and a Brier score of 0.085 in the validation set. The validation calibration intercept was −0.055 and the slope was 0.777. Discrimination was comparable to that of the less parsimonious λ<sub>min</sub> model. <b>Conclusions:</b> Past-year suicidality was common among married new-generation migrant workers with children and was most strongly associated with proximal psychological and psychosocial factors. The nomogram may support preliminary identification of higher-risk groups, but it should not be interpreted causally or used for clinical decision-making without external and prospective validation.
KW  - Suicidality; new-generation migrant workers; psychosocial predictors; LASSO regression; developmental adaptation model

DO  - 10.32604/ijmhp.2026.085743