TY - EJOU AU - Kim, Yuli Y. AU - Goldberg, Leah A. AU - Awh, Katherine AU - Bhamare, Tanmay AU - Drajpuch, David AU - Hirshberg, Adi AU - Partington, Sara L. AU - Rogers, Rachel AU - Ruckdeschel, Emily AU - Tobin, Lynda AU - Venuti, Morgan AU - Levine, Lisa D. TI - Accuracy of risk prediction scores in pregnant women with congenital heart disease T2 - Congenital Heart Disease PY - 2019 VL - 14 IS - 3 SN - 1747-0803 AB - Objective: To assess performance of risk stratification schemes in predicting adverse cardiac outcomes in pregnant women with congenital heart disease (CHD) and to compare these schemes to clinical factors alone.
Design: Single‐center retrospective study.
Setting: Tertiary care academic hospital.
Patients: Women ≥18 years with International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes indicating CHD who delivered between 1998 and 2014. CARPREG I and ZAHARA risk scores and modified World Health Organization (WHO) criteria were applied to each woman.
Outcome Measures: The primary outcome was defined by ≥1 of the following: arrhyth‐ mia, heart failure/pulmonary edema, transient ischemic attack, stroke, dissection, myo‐ cardial infarction, cardiac arrest, death during gestation and up to 6 months postpartum.
Results: Of 178 women, the most common CHD lesions were congenital aortic ste‐ nosis (15.2%), ventricular septal defect (13.5%), atrial septal defect (12.9%), and te‐ tralogy of Fallot (12.9%). Thirty‐five women (19.7%) sustained 39 cardiac events. Observed vs expected event rates were 9.9% vs 5% (P = .02) for CARPREG I score 0 and 26.1% vs 7.5% (P < .001) for ZAHARA scores 0.51‐1.5. ZAHARA outperformed CARPREG I at predicting adverse cardiovascular outcomes (AUC 0.80 vs 0.72, P = .03) but was not significantly better than modified WHO. Clinical predictors of adverse cardiac event were symptoms (P = .002), systemic ventricular dysfunction (P < .001), and subpulmonary ventricular dysfunction (P = .03) with an AUC 0.83 comparable to ZAHARA (P = .66).
Conclusions: CARPREG I and ZAHARA scores underestimate cardiac risk for lower risk pregnancies in these women. Of the three risk schemes, CARPREG I performed least well in predictive capacity. Clinical factors specific to the population studied are comparable to stratification schemes. KW - adult congenital heart disease KW - outcomes KW - pregnancy KW - risk stratification DO - 10.1111/chd.12750