
@Article{cmc.2026.086222,
AUTHOR = {Jia Chen, Zhicheng Liao, Mengdi Hou, Jianbo Huang},
TITLE = {Interpretable Machine Learning for Compressive and Flexural Strength Prediction of Fly Ash Blended 3D Printed Concrete with Uncertainty Quantification},
JOURNAL = {Computers, Materials \& Continua},
VOLUME = {},
YEAR = {},
NUMBER = {},
PAGES = {{pages}},
URL = {http://www.techscience.com/cmc/online/detail/27633},
ISSN = {1546-2226},
ABSTRACT = {Fly ash (FA) blended 3D printed concrete (3DPC) offers improved sustainability but requires strength prediction models validated at the mix-composition level rather than within familiar formulations. This study applies leave-one-mix-out (LOMO) cross-validation to benchmark eight machine learning algorithms on 126 experimental records spanning seven FA-blended 3DPC compositions (FA 0–15 wt.%, W/B 0.30–0.35, age 1–28 days). ExtraTrees and ElasticNet achieve the highest composition-level generalisation for compressive strength (CS, <mml:math id="mml-ieqn-1"><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn>2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>0.786</mml:mn><mml:mo>±</mml:mo><mml:mn>0.253</mml:mn></mml:math>) and flexural strength (FS, <mml:math id="mml-ieqn-2"><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn>2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>0.915</mml:mn><mml:mo>±</mml:mo><mml:mn>0.061</mml:mn></mml:math>, RMSE <mml:math id="mml-ieqn-3"><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>0.301</mml:mn></mml:math> MPa), respectively. SHAP analysis identifies FA replacement percentage as the dominant CS predictor (mean <mml:math id="mml-ieqn-4"><mml:mrow><mml:mo stretchy="false">|</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>SHAP</mml:mtext><mml:mrow><mml:mo stretchy="false">|</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>3.92</mml:mn></mml:math> MPa, negative effect) and curing age as the dominant FS predictor (1.06 MPa), a reversal consistent with distinct failure mechanisms under compression and flexure. FA substitution at 5%–7.5% with W/B <mml:math id="mml-ieqn-5"><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>0.30</mml:mn></mml:math> is identified as the optimal design range, with content limited to 5% when structural loading within three days is required. LOMO residual prediction intervals are well calibrated from 50% to 99% nominal coverage, with empirical deviations not exceeding 1.4 percentage points; at the 90% level, interval half-widths are <mml:math id="mml-ieqn-6"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo><mml:mn>4.60</mml:mn></mml:math> MPa for CS and <mml:math id="mml-ieqn-7"><mml:mo>±</mml:mo><mml:mn>0.494</mml:mn></mml:math> MPa for FS. Design-space mapping over the FA% <mml:math id="mml-ieqn-8"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math> age prediction grid at W/B <mml:math id="mml-ieqn-9"><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>0.30</mml:mn></mml:math> identifies minimum curing ages of 3 days at FA <mml:math id="mml-ieqn-10"><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo><mml:mn>7.5</mml:mn></mml:math> wt.% and 13.5 days at FA <mml:math id="mml-ieqn-11"><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>10</mml:mn></mml:math> wt.% for simultaneous CS and FS target compliance; Sobol variance decomposition confirms FA% (<mml:math id="mml-ieqn-12"><mml:msub><mml:mi>S</mml:mi><mml:mn>1</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>0.553</mml:mn></mml:math>) and curing age (<mml:math id="mml-ieqn-13"><mml:msub><mml:mi>S</mml:mi><mml:mn>1</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>0.526</mml:mn></mml:math>) as the dominant sensitivity drivers for CS and FS, respectively, in close agreement with the SHAP attribution. A graphical user interface integrating the two best models returns simultaneous CS and FS predictions with 90% calibrated prediction intervals from three mix design inputs, supporting uncertainty-aware strength estimation without programming expertise. Both models are local interpolators conditioned on the experimental design space (FA 0–15 wt.%, W/B 0.30–0.35, age 1–28 days); predictions outside these boundaries have not been validated and should be interpreted with caution. The dataset and source code are publicly available at <a href="https://github.com/lucassivan/ML-FA-3DPC" target="_blank">https://github.com/lucassivan/ML-FA-3DPC</a>.},
DOI = {10.32604/cmc.2026.086222}
}



