@Article{cmc.2020.07535,
AUTHOR = {Xin Gu, Lin Wang, Fuyong Chen, Hongrui Li, Wengang Zhang},
TITLE = {Reliability Analysis of Slope Stability Considering Temporal Variations of Rock Mass Properties},
JOURNAL = {Computers, Materials \& Continua},
VOLUME = {63},
YEAR = {2020},
NUMBER = {1},
PAGES = {263--281},
URL = {http://www.techscience.com/cmc/v63n1/38448},
ISSN = {1546-2226},
ABSTRACT = {Temporal variation of rock mass properties, especially the strength degradation due to drying-wetting cycles as well as the acidic wetting fluid (rainfall or reservoir water) is crucial to stability of reservoir rock slopes. Based on a series of drying-wetting cycling and experiments considering the influences of pH values, the degradation degree models of the reduced cohesion <i>c</i>′, friction angle <i>φ</i>′ are developed.
2D stability analysis of the slope is subsequently carried out to calculate the factor of
safety (Fs) via limit equilibrium method (LEM) and a predictive model of Fs is built
using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), revealing the effect of the dryingwetting
cycles and pH value. The reliability analysis by Monte Carlo simulation is
performed to rationally consider the uncertainty and the temporal variation of the shear
strength parameters of rock mass. Results indicate that the MARS-based model can
estimate the Fs accurately. The Fs and the reliability index <i>β</i> decrease with increase of
drying-wetting cycles, and the temporal variation of rock mass properties has significant
influence on the slope reliability. Overlooking the temporal variation of rock properties
may overestimate the Fs and reliability index <i>β</i> in the longer term.},
DOI = {10.32604/cmc.2020.07535}
}