TY  - EJOU
AU  - Wang, Yifeng 
AU  - Cui, Wei 
AU  - Wang, Zhihui 
AU  - Xue, Yanning 
AU  - Wang, Bing 

TI  - Photovoltaic Output Prediction and Trading Strategy Based on Fractal Theory
T2  - Energy Engineering

PY  - 
VL  - 
IS  - 
SN  - 1546-0118

AB  - This paper proposes a photovoltaic (PV) output prediction and trading strategy based on fractal theory. Firstly, rescaled range analysis (R/S analysis) is employed to quantify the fractal characteristics of PV output sequences under different weather conditions. By calculating the Hurst exponent and fractal dimension, the self-similarity patterns and complexity differences are revealed. Secondly, a fractal interpolation prediction method based on the iterated function system is constructed to achieve high-precision fitting of typical daily output curves. Finally, by integrating the fractal prediction results, a trading decision-making model aimed at minimizing daily electricity procurement costs is established, and a dynamic pricing mechanism linked to the spot market price is designed to coordinate and optimize the PV consumption ratio and spot market procurement strategy. Case study analysis demonstrates that the proposed strategy can effectively improve the PV consumption rate and reduce the procurement costs for electricity retailers, providing reliable technical support for distributed PV to participate in electricity market trading.
KW  - Fractal theory; distributed photovoltaic; output prediction; trading strategy

DO  - 10.32604/ee.2025.074707