TY  - EJOU
AU  - Lin, Jie 
AU  - Shen, Hongchi 
AU  - Pei, Tingting 
AU  - Wu, Yan 

TI  - Remaining Life Prediction Method for Photovoltaic Modules Based on Two-Stage Wiener Process
T2  - Energy Engineering

PY  - 2025
VL  - 122
IS  - 1
SN  - 1546-0118

AB  - Photovoltaic (PV) modules, as essential components of solar power generation systems, significantly influence unit power generation costs. The service life of these modules directly affects these costs. Over time, the performance of PV modules gradually declines due to internal degradation and external environmental factors. This cumulative degradation impacts the overall reliability of photovoltaic power generation. This study addresses the complex degradation process of PV modules by developing a two-stage Wiener process model. This approach accounts for the distinct phases of degradation resulting from module aging and environmental influences. A power degradation model based on the two-stage Wiener process is constructed to describe individual differences in module degradation processes. To estimate the model parameters, a combination of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm and the Bayesian method is employed. Furthermore, the Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) is utilized to identify critical change points in PV module degradation trajectories. To validate the universality and effectiveness of the proposed method, a comparative analysis is conducted against other established life prediction techniques for PV modules.
KW  - Photovoltaic modules; degradation; stochastic processes; lifetime prediction

DO  - 10.32604/ee.2024.055611