TY  - EJOU
AU  - Li, Zhongxun 
AU  - Wang, Bing 
AU  - Liu, Xiaolin 

TI  - Hydrogen Energy Demand Management in China: A Department Scenario Analysis Method
T2  - Energy Engineering

PY  - 2025
VL  - 122
IS  - 3
SN  - 1546-0118

AB  - The proposal of carbon neutrality target makes decarbonization and hydrogenation typical features of future energy development in China. With a wide range of application scenarios, hydrogen energy will experience rapid growth in production and consumption. To formulate an effective hydrogen energy development strategy for the future of China, this study employs the departmental scenario analysis method to calculate and evaluate the future consumption of hydrogen energy in China’s heavy industry, transportation, electricity, and other related fields. Multi-dimensional technical parameters are selected and predicted accurately and reliably in combination with different development scenarios. The findings indicate that the period from 2030 to 2050 will enjoy rapid development of hydrogen energy, having an average annual growth rate of 2% to 4%. The technological progress and breakthroughs scenario has the greatest potential for hydrogen demand scale among the four development scenarios. Under this scenario, the total demand for hydrogen energy is expected to reach 446.37 Mt in 2060. The transportation sector will be the sector with the greatest potential for hydrogen deployment growth from 2023 to 2060, which is expected to rise from 0.038 Mt to about 163.18 Mt, with the ambitious growth in the future. Additionally, hydrogen energy has a considerable development potential in the steel sector, and the trend of de-refueling coke by hydrogenation in this sector will be imperative for this energy-intensive industries.
KW  - Hydrogen; demand management; department scenario analysis; carbon neutrality

DO  - 10.32604/ee.2025.061834