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  • Open Access

    ARTICLE

    Price Prediction of Seasonal Items Using Machine Learning and Statistical Methods

    Mohamed Ali Mohamed, Ibrahim Mahmoud El-Henawy, Ahmad Salah*

    CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.70, No.2, pp. 3473-3489, 2022, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2022.020782

    Abstract Price prediction of goods is a vital point of research due to how common e-commerce platforms are. There are several efforts conducted to forecast the price of items using classic machine learning algorithms and statistical models. These models can predict prices of various financial instruments, e.g., gold, oil, cryptocurrencies, stocks, and second-hand items. Despite these efforts, the literature has no model for predicting the prices of seasonal goods (e.g., Christmas gifts). In this context, we framed the task of seasonal goods price prediction as a regression problem. First, we utilized a real online trailer dataset of Christmas gifts and then… More >

  • Open Access

    ARTICLE

    Attention-Based and Time Series Models for Short-Term Forecasting of COVID-19 Spread

    Jurgita Markevičiūtė1,*, Jolita Bernatavičienė2, Rūta Levulienė1, Viktor Medvedev2, Povilas Treigys2, Julius Venskus2

    CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.70, No.1, pp. 695-714, 2022, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2022.018735

    Abstract The growing number of COVID-19 cases puts pressure on healthcare services and public institutions worldwide. The pandemic has brought much uncertainty to the global economy and the situation in general. Forecasting methods and modeling techniques are important tools for governments to manage critical situations caused by pandemics, which have negative impact on public health. The main purpose of this study is to obtain short-term forecasts of disease epidemiology that could be useful for policymakers and public institutions to make necessary short-term decisions. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed attention-based method combining certain data mining algorithms and the classical ARIMA… More >

  • Open Access

    ARTICLE

    Prediction of BRIC Stock Price Using ARIMA, SutteARIMA, and Holt-Winters

    Ansari Saleh Ahmar1, Pawan Kumar Singh2, Nguyen Van Thanh3,*, Nguyen Viet Tinh3, Vo Minh Hieu3

    CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.70, No.1, pp. 523-534, 2022, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2022.017068

    Abstract The novel coronavirus has played a disastrous role in many countries worldwide. The outbreak became a major epidemic, engulfing the entire world in lockdown and it is now speculated that its economic impact might be worse than economic deceleration and decline. This paper identifies two different models to capture the trend of closing stock prices in Brazil (BVSP), Russia (IMOEX.ME), India (BSESN), and China (SSE), i.e., (BRIC) countries. We predict the stock prices for three daily time periods, so appropriate preparations can be undertaken to solve these issues. First, we compared the ARIMA, SutteARIMA and Holt-Winters (H-W) methods to determine… More >

  • Open Access

    ARTICLE

    Stock-Price Forecasting Based on XGBoost and LSTM

    Pham Hoang Vuong1, Trinh Tan Dat1, Tieu Khoi Mai1, Pham Hoang Uyen2, Pham The Bao1,*

    Computer Systems Science and Engineering, Vol.40, No.1, pp. 237-246, 2022, DOI:10.32604/csse.2022.017685

    Abstract Using time-series data analysis for stock-price forecasting (SPF) is complex and challenging because many factors can influence stock prices (e.g., inflation, seasonality, economic policy, societal behaviors). Such factors can be analyzed over time for SPF. Machine learning and deep learning have been shown to obtain better forecasts of stock prices than traditional approaches. This study, therefore, proposed a method to enhance the performance of an SPF system based on advanced machine learning and deep learning approaches. First, we applied extreme gradient boosting as a feature-selection technique to extract important features from high-dimensional time-series data and remove redundant features. Then, we… More >

  • Open Access

    ARTICLE

    Long-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting for Malaysia Using Artificial Neural Networks in the Presence of Input and Model Uncertainties

    Vin Cent Tai1,*, Yong Chai Tan1, Nor Faiza Abd Rahman1, Hui Xin Che2, Chee Ming Chia2, Lip Huat Saw3, Mohd Fozi Ali4

    Energy Engineering, Vol.118, No.3, pp. 715-725, 2021, DOI:10.32604/EE.2021.014865

    Abstract Electricity demand is also known as load in electric power system. This article presents a Long-Term Load Forecasting (LTLF) approach for Malaysia. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) of 5-layer Multi-Layered Perceptron (MLP) structure has been designed and tested for this purpose. Uncertainties of input variables and ANN model were introduced to obtain the prediction for years 2022 to 2030. Pearson correlation was used to examine the input variables for model construction. The analysis indicates that Primary Energy Supply (PES), population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and temperature are strongly correlated. The forecast results by the proposed method (henceforth referred to as… More >

  • Open Access

    ARTICLE

    Analysis and Forecasting COVID-19 Outbreak in Pakistan Using Decomposition and Ensemble Model

    Xiaoli Qiang1, Muhammad Aamir2,*, Muhammad Naeem2, Shaukat Ali3, Adnan Aslam4, Zehui Shao1

    CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.68, No.1, pp. 841-856, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2021.012540

    Abstract COVID-19 has caused severe health complications and produced a substantial adverse economic impact around the world. Forecasting the trend of COVID-19 infections could help in executing policies to effectively reduce the number of new cases. In this study, we apply the decomposition and ensemble model to forecast COVID-19 confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries in Pakistan for the upcoming month until the end of July. For the decomposition of data, the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) technique is applied. EEMD decomposes the data into small components, called Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). For individual IMFs modelling, we use the Autoregressive Integrated Moving… More >

  • Open Access

    ARTICLE

    Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Pathogenesis of COVID-19 Pandemic Spread in Saudi Arabia

    Sunil Kumar Sharma1, Shivam Bhardwaj2,*, Rashmi Bhardwaj3, Majed Alowaidi1

    CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.66, No.1, pp. 805-825, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2020.011937

    Abstract This article discusses short–term forecasting of the novel Corona Virus (COVID-19) data for infected and recovered cases using the ARIMA method for Saudi Arabia. The COVID-19 data was obtained from the Worldometer and MOH (Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia). The data was analyzed for the period from March 2, 2020 (the first case reported) to June 15, 2020. Using ARIMA (2, 1, 0), we obtained the short forecast up to July 02, 2020. Several statistical parameters were tested for the goodness of fit to evaluate the forecasting methods. The results show that ARIMA (2, 1, 0) gave a better forecast… More >

  • Open Access

    ARTICLE

    Forecasting Model Based on Information-Granulated GA-SVR and ARIMA for Producer Price Index

    Xiangyan Tang1,2, Liang Wang3, Jieren Cheng1,2,4,*, Jing Chen2, Victor S. Sheng5

    CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.58, No.2, pp. 463-491, 2019, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2019.03816

    Abstract The accuracy of predicting the Producer Price Index (PPI) plays an indispensable role in government economic work. However, it is difficult to forecast the PPI. In our research, we first propose an unprecedented hybrid model based on fuzzy information granulation that integrates the GA-SVR and ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model) models. The fuzzy-information-granulation-based GA-SVR-ARIMA hybrid model is intended to deal with the problem of imprecision in PPI estimation. The proposed model adopts the fuzzy information-granulation algorithm to pre-classification-process monthly training samples of the PPI, and produced three different sequences of fuzzy information granules, whose Support Vector Regression (SVR) machine… More >

  • Open Access

    ARTICLE

    An Abnormal Network Flow Feature Sequence Prediction Approach for DDoS Attacks Detection in Big Data Environment

    Jieren Cheng1,2, Ruomeng Xu1,*, Xiangyan Tang1, Victor S. Sheng3, Canting Cai1

    CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.55, No.1, pp. 95-119, 2018, DOI:10.3970/cmc.2018.055.095

    Abstract Distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) is a rapidly growing problem with the fast development of the Internet. There are multitude DDoS detection approaches, however, three major problems about DDoS attack detection appear in the big data environment. Firstly, to shorten the respond time of the DDoS attack detector; secondly, to reduce the required compute resources; lastly, to achieve a high detection rate with low false alarm rate. In the paper, we propose an abnormal network flow feature sequence prediction approach which could fit to be used as a DDoS attack detector in the big data environment and solve aforementioned problems. We define… More >

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