@Article{chd.2025.072819,
AUTHOR = {Ling Lin, Yasha Liang, Yunyu Chen, Rong Su, Hu Zhang, Ailing Yang},
TITLE = {Predictive Value of Echocardiography Combined with Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing for Functional Status and Adverse Outcomes of Adult Patients with Congenital Heart Disease},
JOURNAL = {Structural and Congenital Heart Disease},
VOLUME = {20},
YEAR = {2025},
NUMBER = {6},
PAGES = {703--716},
URL = {http://www.techscience.com/schd/v20n6/66121},
ISSN = {3071-1738},
ABSTRACT = {<b>Background:</b> We aimed to explore the value of echocardiography plus cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) for predicting the functional status and adverse outcomes of adult patients with congenital heart disease (CHD), and to develop a multivariate prediction model. <b>Methods:</b> Subjects (135 in total) in this single-center prospective cohort study were enrolled from adult patients suffering from CHD treated in this hospital during January 2021 and August 2023. Standardized echocardiography and CPET were conducted on all subjects at enrollment, with such indicators as left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), right ventricular function parameters, peak oxygen uptake (peak VO<sub>2</sub>), and carbon dioxide ventilatory equivalent slope [ventilation (VE)/carbon dioxide output (VCO<sub>2</sub>) slope] recorded. <b>Results:</b> In contrast with the non-event group, the event group exhibited higher levels of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and lower LVEF and peak VO<sub>2</sub> (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05). Four key predictors (age, NT-proBNP, LVEF and peak VO<sub>2</sub>) were acquired after Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression analysis. According to Cox analysis, age and NT-proBNP served as risk factors, while LVEF and peak VO<sub>2</sub> acted as protective factors (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05). As to the Logistic model, its area under curve (AUC) was 0.920, the mean AUC in cross-validation was 0.919, and the SHAPLEY Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis results were in line with the Cox model. <b>Conclusions:</b> Echocardiography plus CPET is capable of effectively forecasting the functional status and adverse outcomes of adult CHD patients, and the key independent predictors are age, NT-proBNP, LVEF and peak VO<sub>2</sub>.},
DOI = {10.32604/chd.2025.072819}
}