Table of Content

Open Access

ARTICLE

A Framework for Comprehensive Impact Assessment in the Case of an ExtremeWinter Scenario, Considering Integrative Aspects of Systemic Vulnerability and Resilience

Riitta Molarius1, Pekka Tuomaala1, Kalevi Piira1, Minna Räikkönen1, Christoph Aubrecht2, Maria Polese3, Giulio Zuccaro3,4, KaroliinaPilli-Sihvola5, Kalev Ranna
VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd, Tampere, Finland
AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Energy Department, Vienna, Austria
University of Naples Federico II, Department of Structures for Engineering and Architecture, Naples, Italy
University of Naples Federico II, Study Centre Plinivs, Naples, Italy
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn, Estonia

Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences 2015, 109-110(2), 131-158. https://doi.org/10.3970/cmes.2015.109.131

Abstract

In northern regions, society can be seriously interrupted by a prolonged electricity network blackout due to a winter storm that cuts off power, communication and road networks. Due to hard winter weather it is essential to enhance the resilience of society to avoid danger to life. This can be achieved by developing new models to enhance preparedness for coming disaster events and to support rescue and other authorities to focus their resources on the most vulnerable targets in actual cases of emergencies. This paper presents a part of the results of activities performed within the EU project ‘CRISMA – Modelling crisis management for improved action and preparedness’. It focuses on improved resilience by proposing a framework for systemic vulnerability and impact analyses. The described work is conceptually based on risk-hazard and socio-constructive approaches. It is illustrated by means of a scenario consisting of a prolonged blackout together with an extreme winter storm in northern Finland. Scenario components include the integrative analysis of rapidly cooling houses and exposed vulnerable people as well as estimations of the potential costs of the crisis situation. The model can be extended to handle passable routes and the deployment of available rescue and snow ploughing equipment.

Keywords

Crisis modelling, extreme winter, CRISMA, vulnerability.

Cite This Article

Molarius, R., Tuomaala, P., Piira, K., Räikkönen, M., Aubrecht, C. et al. (2015). A Framework for Comprehensive Impact Assessment in the Case of an ExtremeWinter Scenario, Considering Integrative Aspects of Systemic Vulnerability and Resilience. CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, 109-110(2), 131–158.



This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
  • 648

    View

  • 556

    Download

  • 0

    Like

Share Link

WeChat scan