Open Access
ARTICLE
Validity and Quality of Deterioration Models for Structural Reliability Assessment
Robert E Melchers1
1 Centre for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability The University of Newcastle, Australia,
2308. Email: rob.melchers@newcastle.edu.au
Structural Longevity 2009, 1(1), 17-36. https://doi.org/10.3970/sl.2009.001.017
Abstract
There are increasing pressures to extend the service lives of existing
infrastructure and to provide optimal management of their maintenance. Structural
reliability theory now provides a very comprehensive approach to assessing risks
for complex infrastructure systems. It requires probabilistic models for the prediction of the long-term changes to structural capacity and resistance as may result,
for example, from changes in the management or operation of the asset or from
material deterioration in harsh operational environments. While empirical models may be sufficient in some cases, it is preferable for the models to be based on
fundamental science and to deal with remaining uncertainty in a probabilistic manner. Herein models for the prediction of the corrosion of structural steel in marine
environments are considered. The issues involved are reviewed and some of the
pitfalls in model development are considered. These include (i) models based on
inadequate underlying theories, (ii) use of inhomogeneous populations, (iii) use
of inappropriate influencing factors, (iv) use of laboratory test results rather than
field results, (v) insufficient attention to limitations and conditions, (vi) insufficient
understanding of the changes in conditions with time, and (vii) invoking model
simplifications too early. Drawing on material that has already been published in
the literature, examples are given of each to show how these matters may provide
misleading information to potential end-users.
Cite This Article
Melchers, R. E. (2009). Validity and Quality of Deterioration Models for Structural Reliability Assessment.
Structural Longevity, 1(1), 17–36.