Open Access

ARTICLE

Modeling COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics in Two Asian Countries

Jin Zhao¹, Zubair Ahmad^2,*, Zahra Almaspoor², M. El-Morshedy^3,4, Ahmed Z. Afify⁵
1 School of Finance, Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting and Finance, Shanghai, China
2 Department of Statistics, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran
3 Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Humanities in Al-Kharj, Prince Sattam bin Abdulaziz University, Al-Kharj, 11942, Saudi Arabia
4 Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mansoura University, Mansoura, 35516, Egypt
5 Department of Statistics, Mathematics and Insurance, Benha University, Benha, 13511, Egypt
* Corresponding Author: Zubair Ahmad. Email:
(This article belongs to this Special Issue: Mathematical aspects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Analysis and Control)

Computers, Materials & Continua 2021, 67(1), 965-977. https://doi.org/10.32604/cmc.2021.014553

Received 28 September 2020; Accepted 05 November 2020; Issue published 12 January 2021

Abstract

The current epidemic outbreak COVID-19 first took place in the Wuhan city of China and then spread worldwide. This deadly disease affected millions of people and compelled the governments and other concerned institutions to take serious actions. Around 0.28 million people have died from the COVID-19 outbreak as of May 11, 2020, 05:41 GMT, and the number is still increasing exponentially. The results of any scientific investigation of this phenomenon are still to come. However, now it is urgently needed to evaluate and compare the disease dynamics to improve the quarantine activities and the level of individual protection, to at least speed up the rate of isolation of infected persons. In the domain of big data science and other related areas, it is always of interest to provide the best description of the data under consideration. Therefore, in this article, we compare the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics between two neighboring Asian countries, Iran and Pakistan, to provide a framework to arrange the appropriate quarantine activities. Simple tools for comparing this deadly pandemic dynamic have been presented that can be adopted to produce the bases for inferences. Most importantly, a new statistical model is developed to provide the best description of COVID-19 daily deaths data in Iran and Pakistan.

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Keywords

COVID-19 pandemic dynamics; Pakistan; mathematical modeling; statistical methods; Monte Carlo simulation

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Citations