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• Open Access

ARTICLE

### A Novel COVID-19 Prediction Model with Optimal Control Rates

Intelligent Automation & Soft Computing, Vol.32, No.2, pp. 979-990, 2022, DOI:10.32604/iasc.2022.020726

Abstract The Corona (COVID-19) epidemic has triggered interest in many fields of technology, medicine, science, and politics. Most of the mathematical research in this area focused on analyzing the dynamics of the spread of the virus. In this article, after a review of some current methodologies, a non-linear system of differential equations is developed to model the spread of COVID-19. In order to consider a wide spectrum of scenarios, we propose a susceptible-exposed-infected-quarantined-recovered (SEIQRS)-model which was analyzed to determine threshold conditions for its stability, and the number of infected cases that is an infected person will transmit on a virus to,… More >

• Open Access

ARTICLE

### Fractional Analysis of Dynamical Novel COVID-19 by Semi-Analytical Technique

CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, Vol.129, No.2, pp. 705-727, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmes.2021.015375

Abstract This study employs a semi-analytical approach, called Optimal Homotopy Asymptotic Method (OHAM), to analyze a coronavirus (COVID-19) transmission model of fractional order. The proposed method employs Caputo's fractional derivatives and Reimann-Liouville fractional integral sense to solve the underlying model. To the best of our knowledge, this work presents the first application of an optimal homotopy asymptotic scheme for better estimation of the future dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our proposed fractional-order scheme for the parameterized model is based on the available number of infected cases from January 21 to January 28, 2020, in Wuhan City of China. For the considered… More >

• Open Access

ARTICLE

### Optimal Control Model for the Transmission of Novel COVID-19

CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.66, No.3, pp. 3089-3106, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2021.012301

Abstract As the corona virus (COVID-19) pandemic ravages socio-economic activities in addition to devastating infectious and fatal consequences, optimal control strategy is an effective measure that neutralizes the scourge to its lowest ebb. In this paper, we present a mathematical model for the dynamics of COVID-19, and then we added an optimal control function to the model in order to effectively control the outbreak. We incorporate three main control efforts (isolation, quarantine and hospitalization) into the model aimed at controlling the spread of the pandemic. These efforts are further subdivided into five functions; u1(t) (isolation of the susceptible communities), u2(t) (contact… More >

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