Guebin Choi^*

CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, Vol.146, No.1, 2026, DOI:10.32604/cmes.2025.073985 - 29 January 2026

Abstract This study proposes a novel forecasting framework that simultaneously captures the strong periodicity and irregular meteorological fluctuations inherent in solar radiation time series. Existing approaches typically define inter-regional correlations using either simple correlation coefficients or distance-based measures when applying spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs). However, such definitions are prone to generating spurious correlations due to the dominance of periodic structures. To address this limitation, we adopt the Elastic-Band Transform (EBT) to decompose solar radiation into periodic and amplitude-modulated components, which are then modeled independently with separate graph neural networks. The periodic component, characterized by strong More >

Amel Ksibi^*, Hatoon Albadah, Ghadah Aldehim, Manel Ayadi

CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, Vol.146, No.1, 2026, DOI:10.32604/cmes.2025.073533 - 29 January 2026

Abstract Sustainable energy systems will entail a change in the carbon intensity projections, which should be carried out in a proper manner to facilitate the smooth running of the grid and reduce greenhouse emissions. The present article outlines the TransCarbonNet, a novel hybrid deep learning framework with self-attention characteristics added to the bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) network to forecast the carbon intensity of the grid several days. The proposed temporal fusion model not only learns the local temporal interactions but also the long-term patterns of the carbon emission data; hence, it is able to give… More >

Jihoon Moon^*

CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, Vol.146, No.1, 2026, DOI:10.32604/cmes.2025.071052 - 29 January 2026

Abstract Predicting the behavior of renewable energy systems requires models capable of generating accurate forecasts from limited historical data, a challenge that becomes especially pronounced when commissioning new facilities where operational records are scarce. This review aims to synthesize recent progress in data-efficient deep learning approaches for addressing such “cold-start” forecasting problems. It primarily covers three interrelated domains—solar photovoltaic (PV), wind power, and electrical load forecasting—where data scarcity and operational variability are most critical, while also including representative studies on hydropower and carbon emission prediction to provide a broader systems perspective. To this end, we examined… More >

Weiqi Mao^1,2,3, Enbo Yu^1,*, Guoji Xu³, Xiaozhen Li³

CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, Vol.146, No.1, 2026, DOI:10.32604/cmes.2025.069733 - 29 January 2026

Abstract Accurate wind speed prediction is crucial for stabilizing power grids with high wind energy penetration. This study presents a novel machine learning model that integrates clustering, deep learning, and transfer learning to mitigate accuracy degradation in 24-h forecasting. Initially, an optimized DB-SCAN (Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise) algorithm clusters wind fields based on wind direction, probability density, and spectral features, enhancing physical interpretability and reducing training complexity. Subsequently, a ResNet (Residual Network) extracts multi-scale patterns from decomposed wind signals, while transfer learning adapts the backbone network across clusters, cutting training time by over… More >

Yali Cao¹, Weijian Hu^1,2, Lingfang Li^1,*, Minchao Li¹, Meng Xu², Ke Han²

CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.86, No.2, pp. 1-23, 2026, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2025.069373 - 09 December 2025

Abstract Traffic flow prediction constitutes a fundamental component of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), playing a pivotal role in mitigating congestion, enhancing route optimization, and improving the utilization efficiency of roadway infrastructure. However, existing methods struggle in complex traffic scenarios due to static spatio-temporal embedding, restricted multi-scale temporal modeling, and weak representation of local spatial interactions. This study proposes Bi-STAT+, an enhanced bidirectional spatio-temporal attention framework to address existing limitations through three principal contributions: (1) an adaptive spatio-temporal embedding module that dynamically adjusts embeddings to capture complex traffic variations; (2) frequency-domain analysis in the temporal dimension for… More >

Zitong Zhao¹, Zixuan Zhang², Zhenxing Niu^3,*

CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.86, No.1, pp. 1-16, 2026, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2025.069752 - 10 November 2025

Abstract Reliable traffic flow prediction is crucial for mitigating urban congestion. This paper proposes Attention-based spatiotemporal Interactive Dynamic Graph Convolutional Network (AIDGCN), a novel architecture integrating Interactive Dynamic Graph Convolution Network (IDGCN) with Temporal Multi-Head Trend-Aware Attention. Its core innovation lies in IDGCN, which uniquely splits sequences into symmetric intervals for interactive feature sharing via dynamic graphs, and a novel attention mechanism incorporating convolutional operations to capture essential local traffic trends—addressing a critical gap in standard attention for continuous data. For 15- and 60-min forecasting on METR-LA, AIDGCN achieves MAEs of 0.75% and 0.39%, and RMSEs More >

Yağmur Yılan, Ahad Beykent^*

CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.86, No.1, pp. 1-16, 2026, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2025.068440 - 10 November 2025

Abstract Accurate short-term electricity price forecasts are essential for market participants to optimize bidding strategies, hedge risk and plan generation schedules. By leveraging advanced data analytics and machine learning methods, accurate and reliable price forecasts can be achieved. This study forecasts day-ahead prices in Türkiye’s electricity market using eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). We benchmark XGBoost against four alternatives—Support Vector Machines (SVM), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosting (GBM)—using 8760 hourly observations from 2023 provided by Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST). All models were trained on an identical chronological 80/20 train–test split, with hyperparameters More >

Mintao Xu^1,#, Zichao Jin^1,#, Yangyang Tian¹, Jingcheng Zhang^1,*, Huiqin Ma¹, Yujin Jing¹, Jiangxing Wu², Jing Zhai²

Phyton-International Journal of Experimental Botany, Vol.94, No.12, pp. 4059-4078, 2025, DOI:10.32604/phyton.2025.074422 - 29 December 2025

Abstract The frequent outbreaks of crop diseases pose a serious threat to global agricultural production and food security. Data-driven forecasting models have emerged as an effective approach to support early warning and management, yet the lack of user-friendly tools for model development remains a major bottleneck. This study presents the Multi-Scenario Crop Disease Forecasting Modeling System (MSDFS), an open-source platform that enables end-to-end model construction-from multi-source data ingestion and feature engineering to training, evaluation, and deployment-across four representative scenarios: static point-based, static grid-based, dynamic point-based, and dynamic grid-based. Unlike conventional frameworks, MSDFS emphasizes modeling flexibility, allowing… More >

Chen Pan, ChangGyoon Lim^*

CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, Vol.145, No.3, pp. 3747-3781, 2025, DOI:10.32604/cmes.2025.073389 - 23 December 2025

Abstract Solar forecasting using ground-based sky image offers a promising approach to reduce uncertainty in photovoltaic (PV) power generation. However, existing methods often rely on deterministic predictions that lack diversity, making it difficult to capture the inherently stochastic nature of cloud movement. To address this limitation, we propose a new two-stage probabilistic forecasting framework. In the first stage, we introduce I-GPT, a multiscale physics-constrained generative model for stochastic sky image prediction. Given a sequence of past sky images, I-GPT uses a Transformer-based VQ-VAE. It also incorporates multi-scale physics-informed recurrent units (Multi-scale PhyCell) and dynamically weighted fuses… More >

Tariq Ali^1,2,*, Muhammad Ayaz^1,2, Mohammad Hijji², Imran Baig³, MI Mohamed Ershath⁴, Saleh Albelwi²

CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, Vol.145, No.3, pp. 3839-3858, 2025, DOI:10.32604/cmes.2025.073169 - 23 December 2025

Abstract The integration of renewable energy sources into electricity markets presents significant challenges due to the inherent variability and uncertainty of power generation from wind, solar, and other renewables. Accurate forecasting is crucial for ensuring grid stability, optimizing market operations, and minimizing economic risks. This paper introduces a hybrid forecasting framework incorporating fractional-order statistical models, fractal-based feature engineering, and deep learning architectures to improve renewable energy forecasting accuracy. Fractional autoregressive integrated moving average (FARIMA) and fractional exponential smoothing (FETS) models are explored for capturing long-memory dependencies in energy time-series data. Additionally, multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) More >