Christian Rauch^*

Frontiers in Heat and Mass Transfer, Vol.2, No.3, pp. 1-8, 2011, DOI:10.5098/hmt.v2.3.3006

Abstract In recent years, significant effort has been placed into developing automated multi-physics simulation. The exchange of boundary conditions has lead to more realistic as well as more complex simulations with usually slower convergence rate when the coupling is being performed between two different codes. In this paper the equations of local sensitivities for element centered steady-state combined convection, conduction, and thermal radiation problems are being derived. A numerical analysis on the stability of the solution matrix is being conducted. Partial uncertainties and the relative importance of the heat transfer modes are investigated by their uncertainty factors and conclusions are being… More >

Abidhan Bardhan^1,*, Raushan Kumar Singh², Mohammed Alatiyyah³, Sulaiman Abdullah Alateyah^4,*

CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, Vol.139, No.2, pp. 1521-1555, 2024, DOI:10.32604/cmes.2023.044467

Abstract This research proposes a highly effective soft computing paradigm for estimating the compressive strength (CS) of metakaolin-contained cemented materials. The proposed approach is a combination of an enhanced grey wolf optimizer (EGWO) and an extreme learning machine (ELM). EGWO is an augmented form of the classic grey wolf optimizer (GWO). Compared to standard GWO, EGWO has a better hunting mechanism and produces an optimal performance. The EGWO was used to optimize the ELM structure and a hybrid model, ELM-EGWO, was built. To train and validate the proposed ELM-EGWO model, a sum of 361 experimental results featuring five influencing factors was… More >

Xu Zhang¹, Jianchao Ni², Juxi Hu^3,*, Weisi Chen⁴

Computer Systems Science and Engineering, Vol.46, No.2, pp. 1947-1960, 2023, DOI:10.32604/csse.2023.035118

Abstract Structural reliability is an important method to measure the safety performance of structures under the influence of uncertain factors. Traditional structural reliability analysis methods often convert the limit state function to the polynomial form to measure whether the structure is invalid. The uncertain parameters mainly exist in the form of intervals. This method requires a lot of calculation and is often difficult to achieve efficiently. In order to solve this problem, this paper proposes an interval variable multivariate polynomial algorithm based on Bernstein polynomials and evidence theory to solve the structural reliability problem with cognitive uncertainty. Based on the non-probabilistic… More >

Yongqiang Guo^1,2,*, Zhiyuan Lv³

CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, Vol.134, No.3, pp. 1855-1870, 2023, DOI:10.32604/cmes.2022.022211

Abstract In uncertainty analysis and reliability-based multidisciplinary design and optimization (RBMDO) of engineering structures, the saddlepoint approximation (SA) method can be utilized to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of reliability evaluation. However, the random variables involved in SA should be easy to handle. Additionally, the corresponding saddlepoint equation should not be complicated. Both of them limit the application of SA for engineering problems. The moment method can construct an approximate cumulative distribution function of the performance function based on the first few statistical moments. However, the traditional moment matching method is not very accurate generally. In order to take advantage of… More >

Jingpeng Wang¹, Wei Zhang¹, Zhiwei Lin¹, Lin Song¹, Shiyuan Xie¹, Qi Liu², Wei Wang², Tao Yang², Kai Xu², Meng Li², Yuqiang Xu^3,*

FDMP-Fluid Dynamics & Materials Processing, Vol.19, No.1, pp. 105-116, 2023, DOI:10.32604/fdmp.2023.020049

Abstract An uncertainty analysis method is proposed for the assessment of the residual strength of a casing subjected to wear and non-uniform load in a deep well. The influence of casing residual stress, out-of-roundness and non-uniform load is considered. The distribution of multi-source parameters related to the residual anti extrusion strength and residual anti internal pressure strength of the casing after wear are determined using the probability theory. Considering the technical casing of X101 well in Xinjiang Oilfield as an example, it is shown that the randomness of casing wear depth, formation elastic modulus and formation Poisson’s ratio are the main… More >

Lingai Guo¹, Marwan Fahs², Hussein Hoteit³, Rui Gao^1,*, Qian Shao^1,*

CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, Vol.129, No.1, pp. 279-297, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmes.2021.016619

Abstract Numerical modeling of seepage-induced consolidation process usually encounters significant uncertainty in the properties of geotechnical materials. Assessing the effect of uncertain parameters on the performance variability of the seepage consolidation model is of critical importance to the simulation and tests of this process. To this end, the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are performed on a seepage consolidation model in a fractured porous medium using the Bayesian sparse polynomial chaos expansion (SPCE) method. Five uncertain parameters including Young’s modulus, Poisson’s ratio, and the permeability of the porous matrix, the permeability within the fracture, and Biot’s constant are studied. Bayesian SPCE models… More >

Oakyoung Han¹, Jaehyoun Kim^2,*

CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.68, No.2, pp. 2621-2632, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2021.014665

Abstract The analysis of large time-series datasets has profoundly enhanced our ability to make accurate predictions in many fields. However, unpredictable phenomena, such as extreme weather events or the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, can greatly limit the ability of time-series analyses to establish reliable patterns. The present work addresses this issue by applying uncertainty analysis using a probability distribution function, and applies the proposed scheme within a preliminary study involving the prediction of power consumption for a single hotel in Seoul, South Korea based on an analysis of 53,567 data items collected by the Korea Electric Power Corporation using robotic… More >

Vin Cent Tai^1,*, Yong Chai Tan¹, Nor Faiza Abd Rahman¹, Hui Xin Che², Chee Ming Chia², Lip Huat Saw³, Mohd Fozi Ali⁴

Energy Engineering, Vol.118, No.3, pp. 715-725, 2021, DOI:10.32604/EE.2021.014865

Abstract Electricity demand is also known as load in electric power system. This article presents a Long-Term Load Forecasting (LTLF) approach for Malaysia. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) of 5-layer Multi-Layered Perceptron (MLP) structure has been designed and tested for this purpose. Uncertainties of input variables and ANN model were introduced to obtain the prediction for years 2022 to 2030. Pearson correlation was used to examine the input variables for model construction. The analysis indicates that Primary Energy Supply (PES), population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and temperature are strongly correlated. The forecast results by the proposed method (henceforth referred to as… More >

Liqun Wang¹, Zengtao Chen², Guolai Yang^1,*

CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, Vol.126, No.2, pp. 479-503, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmes.2021.011954

Abstract This paper proposes a non-intrusive uncertainty analysis method for artillery dynamics involving hybrid uncertainty using polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). The uncertainty parameters with sufficient information are regarded as stochastic variables, whereas the interval variables are used to treat the uncertainty parameters with limited stochastic knowledge. In this method, the PCE model is constructed through the Galerkin projection method, in which the sparse grid strategy is used to generate the integral points and the corresponding integral weights. Through the sampling in PCE, the original dynamic systems with hybrid stochastic and interval parameters can be transformed into deterministic dynamic systems, without changing… More >

Meng Li¹, Kanhua Su¹, Zijian Li², Dongjie Li³, Lifu Wan¹

CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, Vol.113, No.4, pp. 475-495, 2017, DOI:10.3970/cmes.2017.113.475

Abstract With the consideration of the randomness of complex geologic parameters for ultra-deep wells, an uncertainty analysis method is presented for the extrusion load on casing in ultra-deep wells through complex formation at a certain confidence level. Based on the extrusion load model for casing in ultra-deep wells and the prerequisite of integrity of formation-cement ring-casing, the probability and statistics theory is introduced and the sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of extrusion load on casing is conducted. The distribution types of each formation parameters are determined statistically. The distribution type and distribution function of the extrusion load on casing are derived.… More >