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    ARTICLE

    A Probabilistic Approach to Hazard Mapping Based on Computer Simulations. An Example for Lava Flows at Mount Etna

    R. Rongo1,2, D. D’Ambrosio1,2, G. Iovine2,3, F. Lucà4, V. Lupiano5, V.P.Boñgolan6, W. Spataro1,2

    CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, Vol.109-110, No.2, pp. 105-130, 2015, DOI:10.3970/cmes.2015.109.105

    Abstract Determining sectors that could be affected by lava flows in volcanic areas is essential for risk mitigation purposes. Traditionally, when adopting methods based on probabilistic numerical simulations, the hazard is assessed by analysing a huge set of simulations of hypothetical events, each characterized by a distinct probability of occurrence based on statistics of historical events. If lateral or eccentric eruptions are also taken into account, simulated lava flows usually start from the nodes of regular grids of potential vents, uniformly covering the study area. In this study, an alternative approach to evaluate flow-type hazard, based on a nonuniform grid of… More >

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