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    Reliability Analysis for Complex Systems based on Dynamic Evidential Network Considering Epistemic Uncertainty

    Rongxing Duan1, Yanni Lin1, Longfei Hu1

    CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, Vol.113, No.1, pp. 17-34, 2017, DOI:10.3970/cmes.2017.113.015

    Abstract Fault tolerant technology has greatly improved the reliability of modern systems on one hand and makes their failure mechanisms more complex on the other. The characteristics of dynamics of failure, diversity of distribution and epistemic uncertainty always exist in these systems, which increase the challenges in the reliability assessment of these systems significantly. This paper presents a novel reliability analysis framework for complex systems within which the failure rates of components are expressed in interval numbers. Specifically, it uses a dynamic fault tree (DFT) to model the dynamic fault behaviors and copes with the epistemic uncertainty using Dempster- Shafer (D-S)… More >

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