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    Uncertainty Analysis Method of Casing Extrusion Load for Ultra-Deep Wells

    Meng Li1, Kanhua Su1, Zijian Li2, Dongjie Li3, Lifu Wan1

    CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, Vol.113, No.4, pp. 475-495, 2017, DOI:10.3970/cmes.2017.113.475

    Abstract With the consideration of the randomness of complex geologic parameters for ultra-deep wells, an uncertainty analysis method is presented for the extrusion load on casing in ultra-deep wells through complex formation at a certain confidence level. Based on the extrusion load model for casing in ultra-deep wells and the prerequisite of integrity of formation-cement ring-casing, the probability and statistics theory is introduced and the sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of extrusion load on casing is conducted. The distribution types of each formation parameters are determined statistically. The distribution type and distribution function of the extrusion load on casing are derived.… More >

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