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  • Open Access

    ARTICLE

    Bayesian Stochastic INLA Application to the SIR-SI Model for Investigating Dengue Transmission Dynamics

    Mukhsar1,*, Andi Tenriawaru2, Gusti Ngurah Adhi Wibawa1, Bahriddin Abapihi1, Sitti Wirdhana Ahmad3, I Putu Sudayasa4

    Intelligent Automation & Soft Computing, Vol.40, pp. 177-193, 2025, DOI:10.32604/iasc.2025.058884 - 24 February 2025

    Abstract Despite extensive prevention efforts and research, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) remains a major public health challenge, particularly in tropical regions, with significant social, economic, and health consequences. Statistical models are crucial in studying infectious DHF by providing a structured framework to analyze transmission dynamics between humans (hosts) and mosquitoes (vectors). Depending on the disease characteristics, different stochastic compartmental models can be employed. This research applies Bayesian Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) to the SIR-SI model for DHF data. The method delivers accurate parameter estimates, improved computational efficiency, and effective integration with early warning systems. The… More >

  • Open Access

    ARTICLE

    Bayesian Convolution for Stochastic Epidemic Model

    Mukhsar1,*, Ansari Saleh Ahmar2, M. A. El Safty3, Hamed El-Khawaga4,5, M. El Sayed6

    Intelligent Automation & Soft Computing, Vol.34, No.2, pp. 1175-1186, 2022, DOI:10.32604/iasc.2022.025214 - 03 May 2022

    Abstract Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is a tropical disease that always attacks densely populated urban communities. Some factors, such as environment, climate and mobility, have contributed to the spread of the disease. The Aedes aegypti mosquito is an agent of dengue virus in humans, and by inhibiting its life cycle it can reduce the spread of the dengue disease. Therefore, it is necessary to involve the dynamics of mosquito's life cycle in a model in order to obtain a reliable risk map for intervention. The aim of this study is to develop a stochastic convolution susceptible, infective,… More >

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