Open Access

ARTICLE

Decoupling and Driving Forces in Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, and Carbon Emissions: Evidence from China’s BTH Region

Hao Yue¹, Di Gao², Jin Gao¹, Chengmei Wei¹, Jiali Duan³, Shaocheng Mei^3,*

1 Institute of Economic Technology, State Grid Jibei Electric Power Company Limited, Beijing, 100029, China
2 Digital Department, State Grid Jibei Electric Power Company Limited, Beijing, 100029, China
3 School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China

* Corresponding Author: Shaocheng Mei. Email:

Energy Engineering 2025, 122(12), 5091-5109. https://doi.org/10.32604/ee.2025.069140

Received 16 June 2025; Accepted 18 August 2025; Issue published 27 November 2025

Abstract

Against the backdrop of regional coordinated development and China’s “dual carbon” strategic objectives, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region faces an urgent need to transition from its traditional economic growth model, which is heavily reliant on resource consumption. This study investigates the decoupling dynamics among economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions in the BTH region, along with the underlying driving forces, aiming to provide valuable insights for achieving the “dual carbon” targets and fostering high-quality regional development. First, the Tapio decoupling model is employed to analyze the decoupling relationships between economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions in the BTH region from 2000 to 2021. Second, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition method is applied to identify the key driving factors of carbon emission reduction and quantify their respective contributions. Finally, targeted policy recommendations are proposed based on the empirical findings to support regional coordinated development. The results indicate that (1) all three sub-regions within the BTH region have demonstrated consistent improvements in energy utilization efficiency and a gradual decline in carbon emission intensity, although the degree of progress varies across regions; (2) differentiated decoupling states exist between carbon emissions and both economic growth and energy consumption, with Beijing showing significant decoupling, while Tianjin and Hebei Province experience a “rebound” phenomenon following a phase of decoupling; (3) energy consumption intensity and industrial structure optimization have notably positive effects on carbon emission reduction, whereas other factors contribute to varying degrees to the exacerbation of carbon emissions; (4) the impacts of driving factors on carbon emissions exhibit significant spatio-temporal disparities. Based on these findings, the study recommends enhancing fiscal incentives, optimizing industrial structures, improving energy efficiency, and establishing a coordinated regional governance framework to facilitate the BTH region’s low-carbon transition and sustainable development.

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Supplementary Material

Supplementary Material File

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