Quanjia Zuo¹, Fanyi Meng^1,*, Yang Bai²

Energy Engineering, Vol.118, No.2, pp. 303-322, 2021, DOI:10.32604/EE.2021.013239

Abstract As one of the most important commodity futures, the price forecasting of natural gas futures is of great significance for hedging and risk aversion. This paper mainly focuses on natural gas futures pricing which considers seasonality fluctuations. In order to study this issue, we propose a modified approach called six-factor model, in which the influence of seasonal fluctuations are eliminated in every random factor. Using Monte Carlo method, we first assess and comparative analyze the fitting ability of three-factor model and six-factor model for the out of sample data. It is found that six-factor model has better performance than three-factor… More >

Bing Wang^1,2,*, Yao Yao¹, Liting He¹, Xiangqian Pei¹

Energy Engineering, Vol.117, No.3, pp. 111-128, 2020, DOI:10.32604/EE.2020.010474

Abstract With the huge increase in natural gas consumption, the distortion of natural gas prices, especially in the residential sector, is prominently shaped into a heavy burden for public finance. Although city gate price and a price linkage mechanism have been established, the price tolerance of residential natural gas should be considered when the price of residential gas fluctuates with the upstream gas price. Determinants of the price affordability of residential natural gas consumption at different economic development levels (Beijing, Nanjing, Zhengzhou) are investigated by field survey and online investigation and analyzed by a factor analysis and discriminant analysis. The results… More >