Zhihui Xu¹, Shuwen Shang², Yuntong Pu³, Xiaoyan Su^2,*, Hong Qian², Xiaolei Pan²

CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, Vol.138, No.3, pp. 2597-2617, 2024, DOI:10.32604/cmes.2023.031247

Abstract Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM) is widely used in human reliability analysis (HRA). It defines nine common performance conditions (CPCs), which represent the factors that may affect human reliability and are used to modify the cognitive failure probability (CFP). However, the levels of CPCs are usually determined by domain experts, which may be subjective and uncertain. What’s more, the classic CREAM assumes that the CPCs are independent, which is unrealistic. Ignoring the dependence among CPCs will result in repeated calculations of the influence of the CPCs on CFP and lead to unreasonable reliability evaluation. To address the issue… More > Graphic Abstract

Xiaoyan Su^1,*, Shuwen Shang¹, Zhihui Xu², Hong Qian¹, Xiaolei Pan¹

CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, Vol.138, No.2, pp. 1813-1826, 2024, DOI:10.32604/cmes.2023.030957

Abstract With the improvement of equipment reliability, human factors have become the most uncertain part in the system. The standardized Plant Analysis of Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method is a reliable method in the field of human reliability analysis (HRA) to evaluate human reliability and assess risk in large complex systems. However, the classical SPAR-H method does not consider the dependencies among performance shaping factors (PSFs), which may cause overestimation or underestimation of the risk of the actual situation. To address this issue, this paper proposes a new method to deal with the dependencies among PSFs in SPAR-H based on the… More > Graphic Abstract

Yujun Su¹, Xianghao Gao², Hong Qian², Xiaoyan Su^2,*

CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, Vol.132, No.1, pp. 201-214, 2022, DOI:10.32604/cmes.2022.020541

Abstract Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is an important part in safety assessment of a large complex system. Human Cognitive Reliability (HCR) model is a method of evaluating the probability that operators fail to complete during diagnostic decision making within a limited time, which is widely used in HRA. In the application of this method, cognitive patterns of humans are required to be considered and classified, and this process often relies on the evaluation opinions of experts which is highly subjective and uncertain. How to effectively express and process this uncertain and subjective information plays a critical role in improving the accuracy… More >