Open Access

ARTICLE

Multi-Scale Spatial Analysis of Urban Heat Island Dynamics: Linking Land Surface Temperature and Urban Density in Çanakkale (Türkiye)

Esra Eren¹, Emre Özelkan^2,3,*

1 Department of Landscape Architecture, School of Graduate Studies, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Çanakkale, Türkiye
2 Department of City and Regional Planning, Faculty of Architecture and Design, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Çanakkale, Türkiye
3 Risk Management of Natural Disasters Program, School of Graduate Studies, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Çanakkale, Türkiye

* Corresponding Author: Emre Özelkan. Email:

Revue Internationale de Géomatique 2026, 35, 533-559. https://doi.org/10.32604/rig.2026.085793

Received 18 May 2026; Accepted 24 August 2026; Issue published 25 September 2026

Abstract

The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect is a significant consequence of urbanization that shapes Land Surface Temperature (LST) patterns and thermal variability through the complex interactions of urban morphology, surface characteristics, and built environment configuration. This study investigates the multi-scale relationship between urban density indicators and LST in the coastal city of Çanakkale, Türkiye, over a 14-year period (2010–2023). Utilizing Landsat thermal data, the research evaluates six indicators, including Building Coverage Ratio (BCR), Floor Area Ratio (FAR), population density, and open space density, across four spatial scales: 30 m grid, building block, neighborhood, and district. Results identify the Building Block scale as the optimal resolution. While the Neighborhood scale initially exhibited higher explanatory power ($R_{adj}^2$ = 0.447), Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOOCV) revealed this as an artifact of spatial overfitting. Instead, the Building Block scale $(R_{adj}^2$ = 0.314) provides robust structural stability, filtering micro-scale noise without overfitting. A critical finding reveals the synergistic impact of physical and demographic densities. Standardized coefficients show Gross Population Density and BCR act jointly. Unstandardized baseline Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) models indicate every 10% BCR increase is associated with an approximately 0.08°C LST rise (Coef = 0.813). This research’s originality lies in its multi-dimensional approach to scale uncertainty, prioritizing ground-level breathing design over mere density control. The Building Block model’s structural stability, confirmed by consistent in-sample (0.92°C) and out-of-sample LOOCV (0.93°C) errors, provides a verified, robust toolkit for resilient urban planning.

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Supplementary Material

Supplementary Material File

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