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Qualitative Analysis of a Fractional Pandemic Spread Model of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Ali Yousef1,*, Fatma Bozkurt1,2, Thabet Abdeljawad3,4,5

1 Department of Mathematics, Kuwait College of Science and Technology, 27235, Kuwait
2 Department of Mathematics, Erciyes University, Kayseri, 38039, Turkey
3 Department of Mathematics and General Sciences, Prince Sultan University, Riyadh, 11586, Saudi Arabia
4 Department of Medical Research, China Medical University, Taichung, 40402, Taiwan
5 Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering, Asia University, Taichung, Taiwan

* Corresponding Author: Ali Yousef. Email: email

(This article belongs to this Special Issue: Mathematical aspects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Analysis and Control)

Computers, Materials & Continua 2021, 66(1), 843-869.


In this study, we classify the genera of COVID-19 and provide brief information about the root of the spread and the transmission from animal (natural host) to humans. We establish a model of fractional-order differential equations to discuss the spread of the infection from the natural host to the intermediate one, and from the intermediate one to the human host. At the same time, we focus on the potential spillover of bat-borne coronaviruses. We consider the local stability of the co-existing critical point of the model by using the Routh–Hurwitz Criteria. Moreover, we analyze the existence and uniqueness of the constructed initial value problem. We focus on the control parameters to decrease the outbreak from pandemic form to the epidemic by using both strong and weak Allee Effect at time t. Furthermore, the discretization process shows that the system undergoes Neimark–Sacker Bifurcation under specific conditions. Finally, we conduct a series of numerical simulations to enhance the theoretical findings.


Cite This Article

A. Yousef, F. Bozkurt and T. Abdeljawad, "Qualitative analysis of a fractional pandemic spread model of the novel coronavirus (covid-19)," Computers, Materials & Continua, vol. 66, no.1, pp. 843–869, 2021.


cc This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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