Stochastic Analysis for the Dynamics of a Poliovirus Epidemic Model
Department of Mathematics, Government Maulana Zafar Ali Khan Graduate College Wazirabad, Punjab Higher Education
Department (PHED), Lahore, 54000, Pakistan
2 Department of Mathematics, Cankaya University, Balgat, Ankara, 06530, Turkey
3 Department of Medical Research, China Medical University, Taichung, 40402, Taiwan
4 Institute of Space Sciences, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
5 Department of Dermatology, Rashid Latif Medical College Lahore, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan
6 Department of Mathematics, Technische Universitat Chemnitz, Chemnitz, 6209111, Germany
7 Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Lahore, Lahore, 54590, Pakistan
8 Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Central Punjab, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan
9 Department of Biochemistry, University of Sialkot, Sialkot, 51311, Pakistan
* Corresponding Author: Muhammad Mohsin. Email:
(This article belongs to this Special Issue: Bio-inspired Computer Modelling: Theories and Applications in Engineering and Sciences)
Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences 2023, 136(1), 257-275. https://doi.org/10.32604/cmes.2023.023231
Received 15 April 2022; Accepted 30 August 2022; Issue published 05 January 2023
AbstractMost developing countries such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and many more are still fighting against poliovirus. According to the World Health Organization, approximately eighteen million people have been infected with poliovirus in the last two decades. In Asia, still, some countries are suffering from the virus. The stochastic behavior of the poliovirus through the transition probabilities and non-parametric perturbation with fundamental properties are studied. Some basic properties of the deterministic model are studied, equilibria, local stability around the stead states, and reproduction number. Euler Maruyama, stochastic Euler, and stochastic Runge-Kutta study the behavior of complex stochastic differential equations. The main target of this study is to develop a nonstandard computational method that restores dynamical features like positivity, boundedness, and dynamical consistency. Unfortunately, the existing methods failed to fix the actual behavior of the disease. The comparison of the proposed approach with existing methods is investigated.
Jenkins et al. in 2006 formulated a model in which he concluded that the use of monovalent is better than other vaccines. It provides outstanding outbreak control . Haldar et al.  introduced the poliovirus vaccine in India. Kalkowska et al. in 2020 represent a differential equation-based stochastic model for poliovirus transmission. The model shows the poliovirus transmission for 2019 to 2023 with a strategic eradication plan . Minor studied the types of polioviruses, vaccination, and eradication of the virus worldwide . Thompson  investigated the transmission dynamics of the poliovirus in Nigeria. Duque-Marin et al.  studied two types of vaccines in the mathematical model. Denes et al.  presented a model which describes polio transmission in tropical regions. Cheng et al.  discussed a polio vaccination model in two different age classes. Alba et al.  addressed the correlation between climate and vaccination through a mathematical model. Shaghaghi et al. in 2018, studied that the OPV and IVPPvs vaccine was helpful for the eradication of the virus last few years . Shimizu in 2014  explained IPV is very effective against the poliovirus, and the author reviewed the introduction, development, and characterization of the OPV vaccine. In addition, his place in the world was told. Rafique et al. in 2020 presented a mathematical model in which they discovered the dynamics of poliovirus transmission using standard methods with vaccination . Nidia et al.  in 2007, examined the effects of the poliovirus on human life and the steps taken to eradicate the virus and discussed what steps we could take in the future to get rid of it. Thompson et al.  presented polio outbreaks in the USA. Kalkowska et al. introduced a model to identify poliovirus and opportunities to increase population immunity . Kim et al.  presented a model to examine the transmission of virulent circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses. Hillis  formulated a model in different regions before using artificial poliovirus vaccination. Mendrazitsky et al.  explained a disease of epidemic development model. The model analyzed other properties of polio and its non-equilibrium outbreak dynamics. Debanne et al.  presented a mathematical model of poliovirus in America. Naik et al. [20,21] studied the fractional modeling of cancer and HIV infection with the well-known results of stabilities.
The strategy of the paper is as follows. The first section goes to literature, and Section 2 goes to stochastic modeling of poliovirus and its fundamental properties. Section 3 goes to the proposed numerical method and its simulation with current approaches in the literature. Section 4 goes to the paper’s conclusion and remarks.
For any time , S: represents the class that is influenced by infection, E: represents the class that is disclosed by infection, I: represents an infective class, V: represents immunization class, A: represents the constant immigration rate of the human population. β: is the per unit time probability of infection transmission by the infective population. r: is the reduction in the exposed class due to transmission of infection. v: represents the proportion of recruits in the susceptible class moving to the vaccinated class, v1: is the number of vaccinated exposed populations, b: number of exposed populations moving to the infection class. µ: natural death of the human population, α: disease death rate. The first order, nonlinear, and coupled ordinary differential equations of the poliovirus epidemic model are assumed as follows:
2.1 Properties 
And the norm .
As, , where L is differential operator.
If L acts on a function then we denote
where transportation is denoted by
Proof: By Ito’s formula, the model ((1)–(4)) admits a positive solution in the unique local on , and explosion time is denoted by . Because the local Lipschitz condition is satisfied by all the coefficients of the model as mentioned earlier.
Let be sufficiently large for , and lying with the interval . For each integer , define a sequence that is so-called stopping times as
where we set . Since is non-decreasing as
Then . To prove, .
In case of violation of statement, then and such that
this, there is an integer such that
Define a function by
By using Ito’s formula, we calculate
Let, , Then Eq. (12) could be written as
By integrating from 0 to we get
where the taking the expectations to lead to
Set for , and from (15), we have For every there are some such that equals either or for
Hence, is less than
Then we obtain
of represents the indicator function Letting leads to the contradiction .
The disease-free equilibrium of the model is .
The endemic equilibrium of the model is denoted by K1 = (S*, E*, I*, V*).
, , , and .
Theorem 2: The disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if ; otherwise, unstable if .
The elements of the given Jacobean Matrix at is as follows:
We obtain the following results by applying Routh Hurwitz criteria for 2nd order.
if where , .
Theorem 3: The endemic equilibrium K1 = (S*, E*, I*, V*) is locally asymptotically stable if .
Proof: The Jacobean matrix at is as follows:
Applying Routh-Hurwitz Criterion for 3rd order, and , if
Hence the given system is locally asymptotically stable.
Here, F = and G =
The spectral radius of the is called the reproduction number is as follows:
where , .
where Brownian motion is denoted as .
The breakdown of the proposed method for the above equation.
Similarly, we break the remaining system into a proposed method like (19), as follows:
where, n = 0, 1, 2,…, and discretization gap is denoted by “h”.
The elements of the Jacobean matrix are given as
The given Jacobean matrix at is as follows:
Now, for endemic equilibrium (EE) K1 = (S*, E*, I*, V*). The given Jacobean matrix is
Using Mathematica software, the most many eigenvalues of the Jacobean is less than one when . Thus, endemic equilibrium is stable.
Fig. 1 admits the comparative analyses of the proposed approach with current methods in the sense of stochastic. The numerical experimentations can easily conclude that other stochastic numerical methods are conditionally convergent or diverge with larger time step values. The nature of biological properties is not consistent with existing literature methods. For this sake, the nonstandard finite difference is designed to restore the structure of continuous models. Computational methods like stochastic Euler, stochastic Runge Kutta, and Euler Maruyama are presented. Unfortunately, these methods are only applicable for the small step size. These methods diverge when we increase the time and do not obey the dynamical properties (positivity, stability, consistency, and boundedness). The stochastic nonstandard finite difference (SNSFD) method is appropriate for all complex and nonlinear stochastic epidemic models. The stochastic model is a reliable and efficient technique to handle highly nonlinear problems close to nature. The stochastic model is the extension of the deterministic model. We present the non-parametric perturbation technique for the said model. Our focus is to propose an always dynamically consistent, positive, and bounded scheme. That is why we investigate the nonstandard finite difference method in the sense of the stochastic. A comparison section is presented for the efficiency of the processes. Furthermore, we extend this idea to other types of models in the future, as shown in [27–31].
Acknowledgement: Thanks to all authors who contributed equally to preparing the article.
Funding Statement: The authors received no specific funding for this study.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest to report regarding the present study.
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