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Optimized Gated Recurrent Unit for Mid-Term Electricity Price Forecasting

Rashed Iqbal1, Hazlie Mokhlis1, Anis Salwa Mohd Khairuddin1,*, Syafiqah Ismail1, Munir Azam Muhammad2

1 Department of Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Malaya, 50603, Malaysia
2 Department of Electrical Engineering, Main Campus, Iqra University, Karachi, 75300, Pakistan

* Corresponding Author: Anis Salwa Mohd Khairuddin. Email: email

Computer Systems Science and Engineering 2022, 43(2), 817-832. https://doi.org/10.32604/csse.2022.023617

Abstract

Electricity price forecasting (EPF) is important for energy system operations and management which include strategic bidding, generation scheduling, optimum storage reserves scheduling and systems analysis. Moreover, accurate EPF is crucial for the purpose of bidding strategies and minimizing the risk for market participants in the competitive electricity market. Nevertheless, accurate time-series prediction of electricity price is very challenging due to complex nonlinearity in the trend of electricity price. This work proposes a mid-term forecasting model based on the demand and price data, renewable and non-renewable energy supplies, the seasonality and peak and off-peak hours of working and non-working days. An optimized Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) which incorporates Bagged Regression Tree (BTE) is developed in the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) architecture for the mid-term EPF. Tanh layer is employed to optimize the hyperparameters of the heterogeneous GRU with the aim to improve the model’s performance, error reduction and predict the spikes. In this work, the proposed framework is assessed using electricity market data of five major economical states in Australia by using electricity market data from August 2020 to May 2021. The results showed significant improvement when adopting the proposed prediction framework compared to previous works in forecasting the electricity price.

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APA Style
Iqbal, R., Mokhlis, H., Khairuddin, A.S.M., Ismail, S., Muhammad, M.A. (2022). Optimized gated recurrent unit for mid-term electricity price forecasting. Computer Systems Science and Engineering, 43(2), 817-832. https://doi.org/10.32604/csse.2022.023617
Vancouver Style
Iqbal R, Mokhlis H, Khairuddin ASM, Ismail S, Muhammad MA. Optimized gated recurrent unit for mid-term electricity price forecasting. Comput Syst Sci Eng. 2022;43(2):817-832 https://doi.org/10.32604/csse.2022.023617
IEEE Style
R. Iqbal, H. Mokhlis, A.S.M. Khairuddin, S. Ismail, and M.A. Muhammad "Optimized Gated Recurrent Unit for Mid-Term Electricity Price Forecasting," Comput. Syst. Sci. Eng., vol. 43, no. 2, pp. 817-832. 2022. https://doi.org/10.32604/csse.2022.023617



cc This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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