Jipeng Gu¹, Weijie Zhang¹, Youbing Zhang^1,*, Binjie Wang¹, Wei Lou², Mingkang Ye³, Linhai Wang³, Tao Liu⁴

CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, Vol.136, No.3, pp. 2221-2236, 2023, DOI:10.32604/cmes.2023.025396

Abstract An improved fuzzy time series algorithm based on clustering is designed in this paper. The algorithm is successfully applied to short-term load forecasting in the distribution stations. Firstly, the K-means clustering method is used to cluster the data, and the midpoint of two adjacent clustering centers is taken as the dividing point of domain division. On this basis, the data is fuzzed to form a fuzzy time series. Secondly, a high-order fuzzy relation with multiple antecedents is established according to the main measurement indexes of power load, which is used to predict the short-term trend change of load in the… More >

Jinrui Tang^*, Ganheng Ge, Jianchao Liu, Honghui Yang

Energy Engineering, Vol.120, No.5, pp. 1107-1132, 2023, DOI:10.32604/ee.2023.025666

Abstract Electric vehicle (EV) charging load is greatly affected by many traffic factors, such as road congestion. Accurate ultra short-term load forecasting (STLF) results for regional EV charging load are important to the scheduling plan of regional charging load, which can be derived to realize the optimal vehicle to grid benefit. In this paper, a regional-level EV ultra STLF method is proposed and discussed. The usage degree of all charging piles is firstly defined by us based on the usage frequency of charging piles, and then constructed by our collected EV charging transaction data in the field. Secondly, these usage degrees… More >

Saqib Ali^1,2, Shazia Riaz^2,3, Safoora², Xiangyong Liu¹, Guojun Wang^1,*

CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.75, No.1, pp. 1783-1800, 2023, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2023.035736

Abstract Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is part and parcel of the efficient working of power grid stations. Accurate forecasts help to detect the fault and enhance grid reliability for organizing sufficient energy transactions. STLF ranges from an hour ahead prediction to a day ahead prediction. Various electric load forecasting methods have been used in literature for electricity generation planning to meet future load demand. A perfect balance regarding generation and utilization is still lacking to avoid extra generation and misusage of electric load. Therefore, this paper utilizes Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) based Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique to forecast the short-term electricity load… More >

Ahmed Fathalla¹, Zakaria Alameer², Mohamed Abbas³, Ahmed Ali^4,5,*

Computer Systems Science and Engineering, Vol.46, No.1, pp. 929-950, 2023, DOI:10.32604/csse.2023.035255

Abstract The oil industries are an important part of a country’s economy. The crude oil’s price is influenced by a wide range of variables. Therefore, how accurately can countries predict its behavior and what predictors to employ are two main questions. In this view, we propose utilizing deep learning and ensemble learning techniques to boost crude oil’s price forecasting performance. The suggested method is based on a deep learning snapshot ensemble method of the Transformer model. To examine the superiority of the proposed model, this paper compares the proposed deep learning ensemble model against different machine learning and statistical models for… More >

El-Sayed M. El-kenawy¹, Abdelaziz A. Abdelhamid^2,3, Abdelhameed Ibrahim⁴, Mostafa Abotaleb⁵, Tatiana Makarovskikh⁵, Amal H. Alharbi^6,*, Doaa Sami Khafaga⁶

Computer Systems Science and Engineering, Vol.46, No.1, pp. 883-896, 2023, DOI:10.32604/csse.2023.034697

Abstract Several instances of pneumonia with no clear etiology were recorded in Wuhan, China, on December 31, 2019. The world health organization (WHO) called it COVID-19 that stands for “Coronavirus Disease 2019,” which is the second version of the previously known severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) Coronavirus and identified in short as (SARSCoV-2). There have been regular restrictions to avoid the infection spread in all countries, including Saudi Arabia. The prediction of new cases of infections is crucial for authorities to get ready for early handling of the virus spread. Methodology: Analysis and forecasting of epidemic patterns in new SARSCoV-2 positive… More >

Jiahao Wen, Zhijian Wang^*

CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, Vol.136, No.1, pp. 749-765, 2023, DOI:10.32604/cmes.2023.023865

Abstract Since the existing prediction methods have encountered difficulties in processing the multiple influencing factors in short-term power load forecasting, we propose a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) neural network model based on the temporal pattern attention (TPA) mechanism. Firstly, based on the grey relational analysis, datasets similar to forecast day are obtained. Secondly, the bidirectional LSTM layer models the data of the historical load, temperature, humidity, and date-type and extracts complex relationships between data from the hidden row vectors obtained by the BiLSTM network, so that the influencing factors (with different characteristics) can select relevant information from different time steps… More >

Pengwei Yang¹, Yuqi Cao², Jie Tan², Junfa Chen¹, Chao Zhang¹, Yan Wang¹, Haifeng Liang^2,*

Energy Engineering, Vol.120, No.3, pp. 743-762, 2023, DOI:10.32604/ee.2023.024128

Abstract At present, the large-scale access to electric vehicles (EVs) is exerting considerable pressure on the distribution network. Hence, it is particularly important to analyze the capacity of the distribution network to accommodate EVs. To this end, we propose a method for analyzing the EV capacity of the distribution network by considering the composition of the conventional load. First, the analysis and pretreatment methods for the distribution network architecture and conventional load are proposed. Second, the charging behavior of an EV is simulated by combining the Monte Carlo method and the trip chain theory. After obtaining the temporal and spatial distribution… More >

Bing Qu^*, Ping Liao, Yaolong Huang

Structural Durability & Health Monitoring, Vol.16, No.4, pp. 323-341, 2022, DOI:10.32604/sdhm.2022.021446

Abstract The method of time series analysis, applied by establishing appropriate mathematical models for bridge health monitoring data and making forecasts of structural future behavior, stands out as a novel and viable research direction for bridge state assessment. However, outliers inevitably exist in the monitoring data due to various interventions, which reduce the precision of model fitting and affect the forecasting results. Therefore, the identification of outliers is crucial for the accurate interpretation of the monitoring data. In this study, a time series model combined with outlier information for bridge health monitoring is established using intervention analysis theory, and the forecasting… More >

Manish Kumar^1,2,*, Nitai Pal¹

CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.74, No.3, pp. 4785-4799, 2023, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2022.032971

Abstract Increasing energy demands due to factors such as population, globalization, and industrialization has led to increased challenges for existing energy infrastructure. Efficient ways of energy generation and energy consumption like smart grids and smart homes are implemented to face these challenges with reliable, cheap, and easily available sources of energy. Grid integration of renewable energy and other clean distributed generation is increasing continuously to reduce carbon and other air pollutants emissions. But the integration of distributed energy sources and increase in electric demand enhance instability in the grid. Short-term electrical load forecasting reduces the grid fluctuation and enhances the robustness… More >

Xiao Ya Ma^1,2,*, Jin Tong^1,2, Fei Jiang³, Min Xu⁴, Li Mei Sun¹, Qiu Yan Chen¹

CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.74, No.3, pp. 6145-6159, 2023, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2023.034833

Abstract Production prediction is an important factor influencing the realization of an intelligent agricultural supply chain. In an Internet of Things (IoT) environment, accurate yield prediction is one of the prerequisites for achieving an efficient response in an intelligent agricultural supply chain. As an example, this study applied a conventional prediction method and deep learning prediction model to predict the yield of a characteristic regional fruit (the Shatian pomelo) in a comparative study. The root means square error (RMSE) values of regression analysis, exponential smoothing, grey prediction, grey neural network, support vector regression (SVR), and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network… More >