Muhammad Hamza Azam¹, Mohd Hilmi Hasan^1,*, Azlinda A Malik², Saima Hassan³, Said Jadid Abdulkadir¹

CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.73, No.1, pp. 1799-1815, 2022, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2022.028292

Abstract Electricity price forecasting is a subset of energy and power forecasting that focuses on projecting commercial electricity market present and future prices. Electricity price forecasting have been a critical input to energy corporations’ strategic decision-making systems over the last 15 years. Many strategies have been utilized for price forecasting in the past, however Artificial Intelligence Techniques (Fuzzy Logic and ANN) have proven to be more efficient than traditional techniques (Regression and Time Series). Fuzzy logic is an approach that uses membership functions (MF) and fuzzy inference model to forecast future electricity prices. Fuzzy c-means (FCM) is one of the popular… More >

Muhammad Irfan¹, Ali Raza^2,*, Faisal Althobiani³, Nasir Ayub^4,5, Muhammad Idrees⁶, Zain Ali⁷, Kashif Rizwan⁴, Abdullah Saeed Alwadie¹, Saleh Mohammed Ghonaim³, Hesham Abdushkour³, Saifur Rahman¹, Omar Alshorman¹, Samar Alqhtani⁸

CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.72, No.3, pp. 4249-4265, 2022, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2022.025863

Abstract In the Smart Grid (SG) residential environment, consumers change their power consumption routine according to the price and incentives announced by the utility, which causes the prices to deviate from the initial pattern. Thereby, electricity demand and price forecasting play a significant role and can help in terms of reliability and sustainability. Due to the massive amount of data, big data analytics for forecasting becomes a hot topic in the SG domain. In this paper, the changing and non-linearity of consumer consumption pattern complex data is taken as input. To minimize the computational cost and complexity of the data, the… More >

Rashed Iqbal¹, Hazlie Mokhlis¹, Anis Salwa Mohd Khairuddin^1,*, Syafiqah Ismail¹, Munir Azam Muhammad²

Computer Systems Science and Engineering, Vol.43, No.2, pp. 817-832, 2022, DOI:10.32604/csse.2022.023617

Abstract Electricity price forecasting (EPF) is important for energy system operations and management which include strategic bidding, generation scheduling, optimum storage reserves scheduling and systems analysis. Moreover, accurate EPF is crucial for the purpose of bidding strategies and minimizing the risk for market participants in the competitive electricity market. Nevertheless, accurate time-series prediction of electricity price is very challenging due to complex nonlinearity in the trend of electricity price. This work proposes a mid-term forecasting model based on the demand and price data, renewable and non-renewable energy supplies, the seasonality and peak and off-peak hours of working and non-working days. An… More >

Qunhui Zhang¹, Mengzhe Lu^3,4, Liang Dai^2,*

Computer Systems Science and Engineering, Vol.41, No.2, pp. 795-809, 2022, DOI:10.32604/csse.2022.019987

Abstract Stock market trading is an activity in which investors need fast and accurate information to make effective decisions. But the fact is that forecasting stock prices by using various models has been suffering from low accuracy, slow convergence, and complex parameters. This study aims to employ a mixed model to improve the accuracy of stock price prediction. We present how to use a random walk based on jump-diffusion, to obtain stock predictions with a good-fitting degree by adjusting different parameters. Aimed at getting better parameters and then using the time series model to predict the data, we employed the time… More >

Pham Hoang Vuong¹, Trinh Tan Dat¹, Tieu Khoi Mai¹, Pham Hoang Uyen², Pham The Bao^1,*

Computer Systems Science and Engineering, Vol.40, No.1, pp. 237-246, 2022, DOI:10.32604/csse.2022.017685

Abstract Using time-series data analysis for stock-price forecasting (SPF) is complex and challenging because many factors can influence stock prices (e.g., inflation, seasonality, economic policy, societal behaviors). Such factors can be analyzed over time for SPF. Machine learning and deep learning have been shown to obtain better forecasts of stock prices than traditional approaches. This study, therefore, proposed a method to enhance the performance of an SPF system based on advanced machine learning and deep learning approaches. First, we applied extreme gradient boosting as a feature-selection technique to extract important features from high-dimensional time-series data and remove redundant features. Then, we… More >

Daxing Zhang^1,*, Erguan Cai²

CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.69, No.3, pp. 3931-3943, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2021.012302

Abstract Previous research in the area of using deep learning algorithms to forecast stock prices was focused on news headlines, company reports, and a mix of daily stock fundamentals, but few studies achieved excellent results. This study uses a convolutional neural network (CNN) to predict stock prices by considering a great amount of data, consisting of financial news headlines. We call our model N-CNN to distinguish it from a CNN. The main concept is to narrow the diversity of specific stock prices as they are impacted by news headlines, then horizontally expand the news headline data to a higher level for… More >

Mei Sun¹, Qingtao Li², Peiguang Lin^2,*

Intelligent Automation & Soft Computing, Vol.28, No.2, pp. 369-378, 2021, DOI:10.32604/iasc.2021.014962

Abstract Stocks are the key components of most investment portfolios. The accurate forecasting of stock prices can help investors and investment brokerage firms make profits or reduce losses. However, stock forecasting is complex because of the intrinsic features of stock data, such as nonlinearity, long-term dependency, and volatility. Moreover, stock prices are affected by multiple factors. Various studies in this field have proposed ways to improve prediction accuracy. However, not all of the proposed features are valid, and there is often noise in the features—such as political, economic, and legal factors—which can lead to poor prediction results. To overcome such limitations,… More >

Guang Sun¹, Jingjing Lin^1,*, Chen Yang¹, Xiangyang Yin¹, Ziyu Li¹, Peng Guo^1,2, Junqi Sun³, Xiaoping Fan¹, Bin Pan¹

Computer Systems Science and Engineering, Vol.36, No.3, pp. 509-520, 2021, DOI:10.32604/csse.2021.014189

Abstract Forecasting stock prices using deep learning models suffers from problems such as low accuracy, slow convergence, and complex network structures. This study developed an echo state network (ESN) model to mitigate such problems. We compared our ESN with a long short-term memory (LSTM) network by forecasting the stock data of Kweichow Moutai, a leading enterprise in China’s liquor industry. By analyzing data for 120, 240, and 300 days, we generated forecast data for the next 40, 80, and 100 days, respectively, using both ESN and LSTM. In terms of accuracy, ESN had the unique advantage of capturing nonlinear data. Mean… More >

Quanjia Zuo¹, Fanyi Meng^1,*, Yang Bai²

Energy Engineering, Vol.118, No.2, pp. 303-322, 2021, DOI:10.32604/EE.2021.013239

Abstract As one of the most important commodity futures, the price forecasting of natural gas futures is of great significance for hedging and risk aversion. This paper mainly focuses on natural gas futures pricing which considers seasonality fluctuations. In order to study this issue, we propose a modified approach called six-factor model, in which the influence of seasonal fluctuations are eliminated in every random factor. Using Monte Carlo method, we first assess and comparative analyze the fitting ability of three-factor model and six-factor model for the out of sample data. It is found that six-factor model has better performance than three-factor… More >

Baojia Wang¹, Pingzeng Liu^1,*, Zhang Chao¹, Wang Junmei¹, Weijie Chen¹, Ning Cao², Gregory M.P. O’Hare³, Fujiang Wen¹

CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.57, No.2, pp. 283-296, 2018, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2018.03791

Abstract Garlic prices fluctuate dramatically in recent years and it is very difficult to predict garlic prices. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is currently the most important method for predicting garlic prices. However, the ARIMA model can only predict the linear part of the garlic prices, and cannot predict its nonlinear part. Therefore, it is urgent to adopt a method to analyze the nonlinear characteristics of garlic prices. After comparing the advantages and disadvantages of several major prediction models which used to forecast nonlinear time series, using support vector machine (SVM) model to predict the nonlinear part of garlic… More >