Open Access

ARTICLE

Evaluation of Production Enhancement Potential of Deep Shale Gas Horizontal Wells Considering Fracturing Risk Effects

Xi Wang¹, Qianqiu Ren^2,*, Bo Wen¹, Lan Ren^2,3, Zhen Wang¹, Ran Lin^2,3, Bin Liu¹, Zhihao Yu², Yading Li¹, Xiaoqiang Wang¹, Yongzhi Huang⁴
1 Sichuan Shale Gas Exploration and Development Company Limited, Chengdu, China
2 State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, China
3 Tianfu Yongxing Laboratory, Chengdu, China
4 PetroChina Southwest Oil and Gas Field Company, Chengdu, China
* Corresponding Author: Qianqiu Ren. Email:
(This article belongs to the Special Issue: Enhanced Oil and Gas Recovery in Unconventional Reservoirs)

Energy Engineering https://doi.org/10.32604/ee.2026.079687

Received 26 January 2026; Accepted 24 March 2026; Published online 10 April 2026

Abstract

Fracturing risks such as casing deformation and frac hits occur frequently during the fracturing process of deep shale gas horizontal wells. These risks cause significant differences between the expected stimulation performance and the actual production. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the production enhancement potential of deep shale gas horizontal wells considering fracturing risk effects. A fracturing risk prediction model was developed using a back propagation neural network optimized by particle swarm optimization (BP-PSO). A hydraulic fracture propagation model was established based on rock mechanics and fracture mechanics. A post-fracturing productivity evaluation model was built based on advanced seepage mechanics theory. These models were integrated and combined with field data to establish a production enhancement potential evaluation method. Field application results show that the predicted high-risk stages of Well Y correspond well with the actual risk occurrences. The error between the predicted and actual EUR per kilometer is 13.1%, verifying the reliability of the proposed method. The research results enable the prediction of production enhancement potential under fracturing risk effects. They also provide a solid theoretical basis for the economic feasibility analysis of fracturing operations.

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Keywords

Deep shale gas; production enhancement potential; fracturing risk; hydraulic fracture; post-fracturing productivity

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