Open Access

ARTICLE

Two-Stage Investment Decision-Making Research for Power Grid Projects Considering Uncertainty of Regional Development Stages: Multi-Attribute Decision-Making and Robust Optimization

Yi Sui^*, Zhibin Song, Zhuopeng Shi, Yiliang Hao, Yawei Zhao
State Grid Shanxi Electric Power Company Economic and Technological Research Institute, Taiyuan, China
* Corresponding Author: Yi Sui. Email:
(This article belongs to the Special Issue: Next-Generation Distribution System Planning, Operation, and Control)

Energy Engineering https://doi.org/10.32604/ee.2026.079162

Received 15 January 2026; Accepted 16 March 2026; Published online 19 May 2026

Abstract

As the core hub of energy production and consumption, the scientificity of power grid investment allocation directly affects renewable energy integration and power supply reliability. However, regional development stages exhibit significant uncertainty due to factors such as policy orientation and economic-technological progress. Existing power grid investment decision-making methods mostly ignore regional development differences, making it difficult to balance regional development equity and investment efficiency. To address this, this paper proposes a two-stage robust optimization model for power grid investment considering the uncertainty of regional development stages. Firstly, a comprehensive evaluation index system covering operational, technical, economic, and social dimensions is constructed, and the DEMATEL-ANP method is adopted to determine index weights and calculate the basic investment allocation scale for each city. Secondly, aiming at maximizing the net present value (NPV) of investment, a robust optimization theory is introduced to establish an adjusted allocation model, which balances the conservatism and economy of the model by adjusting the maximum deviation ratio to achieve dynamic investment adjustment under uncertain scenarios. Finally, five cities in Shanxi Province at different development stages are selected as a case study to verify the model’s effectiveness. The results show that the model can balance regional development equity and investment efficiency; the investment allocation among cities presents the characteristics of “steady growth in high-development-level cities, adaptive growth rate in potential cities, and basic guarantee in underdeveloped regions”, providing scientific support for precise power grid investment under the new power system.

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Keywords

Power grid investment; uncertainty of regional development; DEMATEL-ANP; robust optimization; two-stage decision-making

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