Interpretable Seepage Discharge Forecasting in Earth-Rock Dams Using an Ensemble Model
Menghua Li1,2,3, Bin Ou1,2,3,4, Jiahao Li1,2,3, Sitong Jin1,2,3, Yanming Zhang1,2,3, Shuyan Fu1,2,3,*
CMES-Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, Vol.147, No.3, 2026, DOI:10.32604/cmes.2026.082514
- 30 June 2026
(This article belongs to the Special Issue: Explainable AI, Digital Twin, and Hybrid Deep Learning Approaches for Urban–Regional Hydrology, Water Quality, and Risk Modeling under Uncertainty)
Abstract Accurate prediction of seepage discharge in earth-rock dams remains challenging due to the strong non-stationary and nonlinear characteristics, limited robustness of individual models, and poor interpretability of black-box approaches. To address these issues, this paper proposes an interpretable hybrid model that integrates Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The model first decomposes the seepage discharge sequence and relevant lagged features using VMD. The LSTM network then captures temporal dependencies of the decomposed components, while the SVM performs regression on the original sequences and features. An adaptive fusion… More >